Metro, which had a 30-year peak in ridership in 2008, saw monthly ridership increases from January through April over last year.

But since April, when cash fares rose to $2 from $1.50 and the cost of ticket packages and passes also increased, ridership dropped 1.3 percent in May and nearly 1 percent in June.

Metro’s revenue is increasing but is $440,000 behind projections for the first six months of 2009.

Metro general manager Chuck Kamp said he is confident ridership will increase about 1.4 percent to 13.5 million by the end of the year — about what was projected. But that’s far below a 6 percent projected increase if there had been no fare hike.

Meanwhile, revenues are estimated to be about $400,000 short of projections by the end of the year, Kamp said.

But Metro expects to get savings through fuel prices, wages and other means and will balance its budget, he said.

"We’ll get back on track," he said. "It might take a little bit longer than we thought."

But Metro’s ridership and revenue report for the first six-months of 2008 is causing concern.

"It’s a trend that’s making me nervous," said Ald. Brian Solomon, 10th District, a member of the city’s Transit and Parking Commission, which opposed the fare hike and warned it would hurt ridership.

"This is what I was scared about," Solomon said. "If we have to start talking about raising fares (again) or cutting services, to me, that would be disastrous."

Mario Mendoza, an aide to Mayor Dave Cieslewicz, who pushed the fare hike, deferred to Kamp for details. But Mendoza said the rate hike "was the right thing to do" and that revenues could still match projections.

The city raised fares only after a hard-fought debate.

Cieslewicz pushed for fare increases in the 2009 budget to improve service, add security at transfer points, boost marketing and cover shortfalls.

But the TPC refused. In February, the City Council voted 11-8 to overrule the TPC and impose the new fare structure.

"You like to avoid fare increases," Kamp said. "We tried to be up front. We had projected the rate of (ridership) growth would go down."

On the revenue side, Metro still anticipates double-digit monthly increases over 2008, but that revenues "will fall short" of projections, he said.

The city, Solomon said, must carefully monitor Metro data month-by-month as it prepares the 2010 budget.

If bad trends continue, the city should even consider cutting fares, Solomon said.

"That’s certainly an option I’d put on the table," he said.
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